Essays
2026
AI is Getting Wiser and Less Dumb
This is an FYSA (“for your situational awareness”) post about AI progress. It is my attempt to summarize a number of key developments in the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) — along with a number of persistent limitations — that, in my...
The Abundances and Scarcities of AGI
What is the fantasy of artificial intelligence? Two proposals, from the leaders of Anthropic and OpenAI, respectively, summarize the target: “a country of geniuses in a datacenter” producing “intelligence too cheap to meter.” While many will be to...
2025
A Brief Explainer on the Simplest Form of AI Alignment
What is reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF)? How can we systematically think about its abilities and limitations as an approach to AI alignment?
2024
Dissecting the Procedure Fetish
What explains the tendency of administrative bureaucracy in the United States to cripple state capacity with layers of procedural rules and regulations? In The Procedure Fetish, Nicholas Bagley offers two potential motivations for this trend, seei...
2023
The American Dream is dying. Here’s what can replace it.
Much has been made of America’s fraying social fabric. American pride is at a record low. Polarization is at a record high, as our parties have become rigidly sorted by demographics, income, and education. The crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and t...